Análise de vazão e precipitação na bacia Tocantins-Araguaia utilizando o modelo WRF-Hydro

Abstract

The efficient management of water resources is a crucial challenge for global sustainable development. Therefore, sustainable water governance requires an interdisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge about environmental, social, and technological processes and inclusive strategies involving scientists, managers, politicians, and public and private initiatives to produce collaborative solutions and contribute to water security. The WRF-Hydro system represents the state of the art in computational modeling of water resources, especially in studies of small and medium-sized watersheds that generally have fewer data available for hydrometeorological analyses. In this context, the object of study of this research is the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, located in the geoeconomic boundary known as MATOPIBA, referred to as an agricultural frontier composed of biomes from the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Knowing its hydrological characteristics is fundamental for grain production management, as climatic events affect its yield. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Hydro hydrological modeling in simulating flow and precipitation, considering the variation of infiltration parameters in a delimited area of the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin. The simulations were performed with a spatial resolution of 3 km and a 100 m channel network, from 01/01 to 11/06 of 2019. To validate the performance of WRF-Hydro, the simulated data were compared with observational data from fluviometry and pluviometry stations of the National Agency for Water and Basic Sanitation (ANA). The results showed a tendency of overestimation of flow and precipitation, but with a satisfactory representation of observed patterns, indicating that the model has estimation capacity for operational purposes. Demonstrating that the application of WRF-Hydro has the potential to improve the predictability, management, and planning of water resources, contributing to water security.